In the session ahead, the PM needs to remember that his mandate ‘has a big old fence around it’
The PM on how he sees Canada’s role in the world and where he wants to take the country
Five years of tory minority rule have been a drunkard’s walk of vote-buying and bed-feathering
Fewer respondents than four years ago are completely comfortable with the prospect of a Conservative majority government—34% in 2007, 26% in 2011. If you combine the currently comfortable with the slightly comfortable and the uncomfortable with slightly uncomfortable, you get a tie—48% to 47.9%.
I think this is quite the most fascinating thing I’ve come across for a long time. It was brought to my attention by a reader of the Small Dead Animals blog, where a blogger named Marcus Vitruvius (proprietor of the Sagacious Iconoclast) sometimes guest-posts. It’s called Vitruvius’s Experimental Election Predictor, and offers a quick and dirty way of reckoning whether the Tories are likely to win a majority.
The formula is as follows:
Ve=(C–L)*(C+L)/100